Zoom to
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Countries tracked
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Vulnerable or worse
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Avg FDRS
Modelled: displayed FDRS by country; data date unavailable. Source: FoodShield countries.json.
Food disruption risk
Unscored
Low exposure0–25
Exposed26–50
Dependent51–75
Vulnerable76–88
Severe89–100
Country profile
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Structural
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Live adj
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Nowcast
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✱ Trade flow atlas
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MODELED ROUTE
What drives the score
Staple suppliers
Key Metrics
Key dependency commodities curated list
2030 Outlook
✱ Indicator synthesis
template, no AI
Recommended Actions
Today’s read
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Most Vulnerable
Live shift vs structural · score
Risk Distribution
Least exposed
Rankings
The world by risk score
All 193 countries ranked by FDRS, with the formula behind it. Compare puts up to 4 side by side.
Pin up to 4 countries to see their scores, components and sourced indicators side by side.
Pinned
Up to 4 countries
Structural outlook · 2030 horizon
Where does pressure build if today's trends hold?
Not a prediction. Each 2030 figure is today's structural score, rescored with the import dependence that population growth and the food-output trend imply by 2030. Nothing else moves.
▸ How this is computed
Each 2030 number = today's structural score rescored with import dependence moved by 100 × (n₂₀₃₀ − n), where n = net imports ÷ staple use (FAOSTAT 2024, USDA) and n₂₀₃₀ = 1 − (1 − n)((1 + r)/(1 + g))⁶, g = World Bank population growth, r = FAOSTAT food-output trend 2015–24. Countries missing any of the three inputs show no change and say so.
It is not an econometric forecast of where each country will actually be in 2030: and no formal back-test pipeline exists yet (it's on the roadmap). Layer shocks on top in the
Scenario Stress Test; see the
Methodology page for inputs.
Loading headlines…
Third-party claims, not measured data: how to read this page
Each headline below is a claim by its
publisher; we link, we do not verify. Commodity and country attribution are
modeled: our keyword match on the headline.
Corridor tonnages are sourced from the bilateral
trade atlas. A headline touching a corridor is not a claim that it
moves prices.
Live Feed
Live Disturbances
Hazard alerts, crisis classifications and supply shocks, rebuilt every six hours from GDACS, ReliefWeb, IPC/CH (via WFP), FEWS NET (28 countries), Open-Meteo weather and river flow, USGS gauges, IMF PortWatch and FX rates. Curated baseline events are marked BASELINE; wire headlines are marked CLAIM.
About FoodShield AI · Built in Rotterdam
Which countries run short of food first when a shock hits, and why.
When one country fails tomorrow (a war, a drought, a port closure), FoodShield shows who gets hurt, and how badly. Built by one student at Erasmus University Rotterdam, it combines 62 public data sources into one comparable score per country: — refreshed automatically and — curated by hand. Each input links to its source.
Open Methodology · dated from the data manifest
The score, its weights and its inputs, on one page.
The Food Disruption Risk Score is one 0–100 composite per country, built from nine components drawn from public data. The score on a country page is that composite plus a bounded live adjustment. The weights, the inputs and the formula are below, so any score can be recomputed by hand.
Built from
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FAO·
USDA PSD·
World Bank·
IMF·
IPC·
FEWS NET·
HDX HAPI (ACLED)·
ND-GAIN·
INFORM·
UN Comtrade
Companies · researched majors · cited claims from their own filings
Where eleven major food and fertilizer companies say they source, in their own filings.
Eleven traders and fertilizer producers, Cargill, ADM, Bunge, Wilmar, Olam, LDC, JBS, Tyson, COFCO, Nutrien and Yara, each with a country list taken from their own annual reports, ESG reports and filings: 222 cited claims across 44 countries. Only Nutrien’s file is fully verified; the rest are provisional. Viterra, part of Bunge since July 2025, is kept as a pre-merger record and is searchable. Mosaic, OCP, CF Industries, EuroChem, WH Group and CP Group are not covered yet. Below the majors, other firms are listed by commodity overlap: inferred, not disclosed.
Sources
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Annual reports·
ESG / sustainability reports·
SEC / HKEX / OSE filings·
Asset-location pages
▸ ● What's sourced vs modeled · what we can't get
Sourced: Country lists for the 12 majors are drawn from each company's own published material: annual reports, ESG / sustainability reports, asset-location pages, SEC / HKEX / OSE filings. Each listed country links to the filing it came from.
Modeled fallback: Less-disclosed regional players use a commodity-overlap heuristic (their known commodities × importer/exporter countries). Labeled in the UI.
What we can't get: Tonnage or share-of-volume per country, no trader publishes this. The Sourced Exposure score weights each country equally, useful as a directional risk-screen, not a quantitative supply-chain weight.
Modeled fallback: Less-disclosed regional players use a commodity-overlap heuristic (their known commodities × importer/exporter countries). Labeled in the UI.
What we can't get: Tonnage or share-of-volume per country, no trader publishes this. The Sourced Exposure score weights each country equally, useful as a directional risk-screen, not a quantitative supply-chain weight.
Source health · refreshed every six hours
What's happening now, and how sound is it?
Market benchmarks under Live Data; the health of every feed behind the site under Data Status.
Market benchmarks behind the score: the FAO Food Price Index and the World Bank Pink Sheet commodity references. Country risk lives on the Global Map; events live on Disturbances.
Every public pipeline behind FoodShield: what it provides, when it last refreshed, whether it is healthy now. Read live from
data/source_manifest.json, regenerated on every refresh cycle.